Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended and daily transits near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels. This ongoing crisis, triggered by US strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran’s retaliatory targeting of a US base, has halted approximately 21% of global oil supply and 25% of LNG trade, forcing ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope.

Historically, traffic has only surged after ceasefire deals; for instance, a recent agreement to halt the US-Iran war saw 25 commercial vessels cross the reopened waterway in a single day, more than triple the wartime average[2]. However, the strait was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, leaving over 150 ships stranded and war-risk insurance premiums at extreme levels[5]. The current 20% probability reflects the fragility of such reopenings and the absence of a durable peace deal.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire and any progress in peace negotiations, as President Trump has stipulated the strait’s reopening as a prerequisite for any agreement[6]. Recent reports indicate daily transits have risen to roughly 25 vessels as confidence in the ceasefire grows, yet this remains far below pre-war levels[4]. The critical dependency is whether mine clearance operations, which could delay traffic restarts, are completed before August 31, 2026[7]. On Polymarket, this contract trades on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, pricing the likelihood of a sustained 7-day moving average above 60 arrivals as published by IMF PortWatch[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.