Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump’s current tenure as the 47th President of the United States, which began on 20 January 2025, remains stable according to real-world indicators, with no credible signals of resignation or removal in the near term. On Polymarket, the contract “Trump out as President by July 31?” is priced at just 1% for “Yes”, reflecting the crowd’s view that such an event is highly improbable before the settlement deadline of 31 July 2026. These odds, updated continuously via on-chain trades using USDC on the Polygon network and conditional tokens, offer a live signal of market expectations rather than a static forecast.

Historically, the only U.S. presidents who left office before their term ended did so due to death (Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, FDR) or resignation (Nixon), with no modern case of voluntary mid-term departure under normal political conditions. The 25th Amendment has been invoked only twice in history, both for temporary incapacity, not permanent removal, and no president has ever been removed via impeachment in a way that resulted in permanent exit before term end. Given this precedent, the 1% probability aligns with the rarity of such events in American governance.

Traders should monitor official White House announcements, Federal Register executive orders, and any congressional actions related to impeachment or the 25th Amendment. A recent declaration of emergency issued by the White House on 3 July 2026 [5] underscores ongoing executive activity but does not indicate instability. Key catalysts include any public statement from Trump himself, shifts in Republican Party leadership, or legal developments that could trigger removal. The market remains sensitive to sudden news, but current data suggests continuity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.