Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 21.5 | 98% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel | 4% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 1% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to swedish open, qualification: carlos sanchez jover vs taro daniel. This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Sanchez Jover and Taro Daniel in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 13, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page reviews Swedish Open, Qualification: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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