Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Falcons face Vici Gaming in an elimination-round best-of-three at The International 2026, with the 80% crowd probability on Polymarket reflecting substantial confidence in Falcons' advancement. The match is scheduled for 15 August 2026 at 22:00 ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 16 August 08:00 UTC. On-chain, this conditional token pair trades on Polygon with USDC collateral, meaning traders holding YES positions gain exposure to Falcons' victory whilst the 20% implied probability for Vici Gaming represents the market's assessment of an upset.

Falcons have established themselves as consistent International contenders, whilst Vici Gaming's recent form and roster stability merit scrutiny. Historical elimination rounds at The International typically see favourites advance at rates exceeding 75%, though upsets occur when preparation gaps or meta-read advantages favour the underdog. Vici's performance trajectory through the group stage and their head-to-head record against Falcons this season will substantially influence whether the current pricing holds or compresses toward settlement.

Key variables include official schedule confirmation—any postponement triggers the 14-day rescheduling window extending to 29 August 23:59 ET—and roster changes or player illness announcements in the 48 hours preceding the match. Polymarket traders should monitor The International's official broadcast schedule and team social media for last-minute disruptions. The tight settlement window (less than 30 hours post-match start) means delayed match results or technical disputes could affect resolution timing, though Valve's established protocols for International matches typically ensure rapid determination.

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Elimination Round across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.