Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 38.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 3 Winner | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 32% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: jaime faria vs jenson brooksby. This market refers to the tennis match between Jaime Faria and Jenson Brooksby in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jaime Faria' if…
Methodology
We track US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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