Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges | 97% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 Winner | 92% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 Winner | 85% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 82% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: jannik sinner vs nuno borges. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jannik Sinner and Nuno Borges in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Nuno Borges on PolyGram
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