Norway vs. England - Player Props

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup 2026 quarter-final between Norway and England kicks off on 11 July at 5:00 PM ET, with Erling Haaland expected to duel England’s centre-backs John Stones and Marc Guéhi [1]. On Polymarket, this player prop contract trades at an 18% YES probability today, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that settle automatically once the match result is confirmed.

Historically, similar World Cup quarter-final player props involving top strikers against organised defences have seen implied probabilities of 15–22% before match day, often settling higher if the striker starts and faces minimal tactical suppression [1]. England’s deeper tournament form and consistent goal threat from Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham have kept their win odds short at 10/11, suggesting Haaland may score but England will likely edge the match 2–1 [1].

Traders should monitor the final squad announcements released before 3:00 PM ET on 11 July, confirming Haaland’s inclusion and England’s defensive lineup, as these are the primary catalysts for this prop’s settlement [5]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts favouring a low-scoring affair could depress the YES probability further, while confirmation of both teams scoring—currently favoured at 4/5—would support the prop’s upside [1]. DraftKings lists the over/under at 2.5 goals with the under slightly favoured, adding context to goal-scoring expectations [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.