Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Club Necaxa O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Club Necaxa O/U 0.5 | 98% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 93% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| New York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Club Necaxa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Club Necaxa 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| New York City FC O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| New York City FC O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Club Necaxa O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Club Necaxa (-1.5) | 9% |
| O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Club Necaxa (-2.5) | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Club Necaxa 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Club Necaxa 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
New York City FC will face Club Necaxa in a Leagues Cup fixture on 13 August at 7:30 PM ET, a tournament that pairs Major League Soccer clubs against Mexican Liga MX sides. The conditional token pricing on Polygon currently values a YES resolution at 2%, reflecting extremely low conviction that additional markets will materialise for this particular matchup beyond those already live. Settlement occurs at 23:30 UTC on the scheduled date, giving traders a narrow window to assess whether supplementary betting contracts emerge before the final whistle.
Polymarket's pricing sits well below historical precedent for Leagues Cup fixtures of comparable profile. Previous editions of the tournament have typically spawned secondary markets—halftime scorelines, player performance thresholds, and corner totals—within hours of primary market launch. The 2% valuation suggests either minimal liquidity expectations for this specific pairing or that the market creator's initial offering has already captured most anticipated trading interest. NYCFC's regular-season prominence in MLS typically correlates with deeper market segmentation than lower-profile fixtures, though Necaxa's Liga MX status introduces additional uncertainty around retail trader participation.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements and the Leagues Cup schedule for any last-minute fixture changes or postponements, which would directly affect market creation timelines. Recent tournament editions have seen markets deployed 24–48 hours before kickoff; delays in the primary market rollout often cascade into secondary offerings. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means confirmation of additional markets requires on-chain verification, introducing a technical dependency beyond pure sporting outcomes.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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