Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tigres de la UANL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Atlas FC O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Tigres de la UANL O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Atlas FC (-1.5) | 3% |
| Atlas FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| Tigres de la UANL (-2.5) | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tigres de la UANL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlas FC will face Tigres de la UANL in a Liga MX fixture on 15 August at 23:00 ET, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle on 16 August. Polymarket currently prices the "More Markets" contract at 3% YES, reflecting minimal conviction that additional derivative markets will be created for this particular matchup. On-chain, this conditional token lives on Polygon and settles in USDC, meaning traders are effectively betting whether the Polymarket protocol team or community will expand the market suite beyond the standard win/draw/loss offerings.
Comparable Liga MX fixtures show that secondary market creation depends heavily on trading volume and liquidity concentration in primary markets. High-profile clashes—particularly those involving Tigres, a perennial contender—occasionally attract enough activity to justify spreads on goal-scorer props or half-time outcomes. However, Atlas, whilst a significant club, does not consistently generate the volume threshold that triggers automated market expansion. The 3% probability reflects this historical pattern: most Liga MX matches settle with minimal auxiliary markets unless the primary market reaches sustained seven-figure USDC depth.
Traders should monitor whether either club announces squad absences or injury concerns in the 48 hours before kickoff, as such developments can spike interest and trading activity. Polymarket's market creation typically responds to organic demand rather than scheduled events, so the catalyst here is volume-driven rather than calendar-driven. The settlement window's tight closure—just over three hours post-match—means any market expansion would need to occur before the fixture concludes.
Methodology
This page reviews Atlas FC vs. Tigres de la UANL - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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