Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Inter Miami CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| O/U 3.5 | 94% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5 | 81% |
| O/U 4.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Inter Miami CF O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 67% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Inter Miami CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Inter Miami CF (-1.5) | 28% |
| Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | 12% |
| Philadelphia Union (-1.5) | 10% |
| Philadelphia Union (-2.5) | 7% |
Market context
Polymarket has this contract at 10% YES, which implies a low chance that the relevant extra market settles in the affirmative by the 2026-08-19 23:30 UTC window. The underlying event is Philadelphia Union hosting Inter Miami CF at Subaru Park in Chester, with kickoff listed for 7:30 pm ET and broadcast on Apple TV. [14][1]
For comparison, this is the kind of MLS fixture where a single late substitution, a VAR review or an added-time goal can swing “more markets” outcomes that depend on totals, cards, corners or similar side metrics. Head-to-head history is fairly split over time, with Philadelphia holding four wins, Inter Miami seven and three draws in the listed record, so a 10% price is more about the specific market definition than a blanket view on either side’s quality. [1][6]
The main trader watchpoints are line-up confirmations, any late injury or rotation news, and whether the clubs’ published match details remain unchanged into settlement. Philadelphia’s own match information and preview pages confirm the midweek schedule and Apple TV coverage, while contemporary listings also show market prices around the fixture and an over/under line that can affect related derivative markets on Polymarket’s USDC-on-Polygon, conditional-token setup. [14][13][3]
Methodology
This page reviews Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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