Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CA Mineiro (-1.5) | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5) | 0% |
| CA Mineiro (-2.5) | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| CA Mineiro 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
CA Mineiro and Red Bull Bragantino will contest a Copa Sudamericana fixture on 19 August at 6:00 PM ET. The market currently settles at 0% YES on Polymarket, indicating traders are pricing minimal likelihood of additional markets materialising for this specific matchup. The conditional token structure on Polygon means any YES resolution depends on Polymarket's operations team creating supplementary betting contracts beyond the standard match outcome and total goals markets already live. Settlement occurs at 22:00 UTC on match day, giving a narrow window for new market creation post-kickoff.
Copa Sudamericana matches historically attract limited secondary market depth compared to Copa Libertadores fixtures, particularly when neither club fields a continental heavyweight roster. Mineiro's recent domestic form and Bragantino's inconsistent campaign suggest this encounter carries moderate rather than premium fixture status. Previous Polymarket coverage of Brazilian domestic and regional tournaments shows additional markets—such as exact scorelines, player performance props, or corner totals—materialise only when underlying liquidity justifies the operational overhead. The 0% pricing reflects this structural reality rather than certainty the match won't occur.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Polymarket's market creation announcements in the 48 hours preceding kickoff. The Copa Sudamericana schedule remains fluid given fixture congestion in Brazilian football calendars. Any unexpected postponement or venue change could trigger additional betting interest and prompt the platform to expand its offering. Conversely, standard on-time execution with baseline interest typically leaves secondary markets undeployed, keeping this contract's YES outcome improbable through settlement.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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