Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open the market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open the market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open the market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open the market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open the market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 75% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 54% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 3 Winner | 49% |
| Game 4 Winner | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| Game 1 Winner | 48% |
| Game 2 Winner | 48% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 48% |
| Match Winner | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 40% |
| Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 35% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 29% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 19% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 9% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 9% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 9% |
Market context
Market consensus: 75% chance of lol: g2 esports vs top esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between G2 Esports and Top Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00A…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season In… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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