Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon and Timofey Skatov are locked in their second career meeting at the EFG Swiss Open in Gstaad, with the match scheduled for 11:20 UTC today on Court 1. On Polymarket, the contract for Collignon to advance trades at a 74% implied probability, priced in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens. This pricing suggests the market views Collignon as the clear favourite, despite Skatov’s recent momentum.

Historical context complicates this bullish stance on Collignon. In their only prior encounter at the Bonn Open, Skatov defeated Collignon 6–4, 4–6, 7–5 to reach his first ATP Challenger final in over a year[2]. That three-set victory demonstrates Skatov’s capacity to outlast Collignon in tight matches, a factor that often causes Polymarket prices to shift sharply if early sets are contested. Past tennis contracts on the platform have shown similar volatility when a lower-implied player holds a recent H2H win, as traders rapidly adjust positions once live scores confirm competitive resilience.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Gstaad draw updates and any weather advisories for Gstaad, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 resolution[1]. The key catalyst is the first-set outcome; if Skatov takes it, the Collignon contract could drop below 60% within minutes. Recent H2H analysis from TennisTonic notes this is their second meeting, highlighting the rivalry’s growing significance[5]. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-20, on-chain liquidity will react instantly to any match-day announcements affecting player availability or court conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.