Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried has formally petitioned President Trump for a presidential pardon while serving a 25-year sentence for the FTX collapse, yet the market currently prices this outcome at just 2% YES. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the on-chain mechanics reflect the extreme improbability of executive clemency for a high-profile fraud conviction. The price action today captures the consensus that no White House shift has emerged to support meaningful relief in the near term.

Historically, Trump’s clemency grants since 2025 have been sparse and typically reserved for non-violent offences or political allies, with only one pardon and two commutations issued in May 2025 for bribery and tax fraud[5]. Comparable cases involving cryptocurrency founders or major financial fraudsters rarely receive pardons, as the Office of the Pardon Attorney categorises such applications as pending but unlikely to succeed[2]. The 2% probability aligns with this precedent, where meaningful relief remains a long-shot bid absent a significant policy change.

Traders should monitor the DOJ’s review status of SBF’s application and any announcements regarding Trump’s potential pardon of 250 individuals for America’s 250th birthday in July 2026[10]. A recent CNBC report confirms the petition was submitted in 2026 and remains under review, with no White House shift as of June 2026[1]. The key catalyst is whether the administration prioritises this case amid the broader clemency push, though current signals suggest meaningful relief is unlikely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.