Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record a daily maximum temperature on 14 August 2026, measured via the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual observation occurs. This reflects the standard Polymarket mechanics where conditional tokens on Polygon settle against verified data post-event, with USDC payouts distributed according to whichever range bracket captures the recorded high.

August temperatures at Schiphol historically cluster between 20–24°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. The station's 30-year average high for mid-August sits near 22°C. Notably, the summer of 2023 saw several days exceed 25°C across the Netherlands during a sustained heat dome, whilst 2021 remained cooler with August highs typically under 21°C. These patterns suggest the market's current pricing may underweight moderate-to-warm scenarios (22–26°C ranges) relative to cooler outcomes, given that such temperatures occur in roughly 40% of August observations historically.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing high-pressure ridges that could push continental air masses northward. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks ahead. Any significant heatwave alerts or anomalous warming patterns across northern Europe in early August would shift conditional token valuations materially, as would confirmation of typical seasonal circulation patterns. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not summary highs—means traders must verify the exact data source KNMI and Schiphol report to.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.