Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport on 2 July 2026 in Ankara is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome, with long-term averages suggesting daytime peaks near 29°C and nightly lows around 18°C[1][5]. Historical data for Ankara in July shows consistent heat with low humidity, typically reaching 27°C to 30°C, while rainfall remains minimal at just 25mm across four days[1][3]. Given these stable patterns, the current 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely because the threshold is set unrealistically high or low relative to typical conditions.

Traders should monitor official meteorological announcements from Turkey’s Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü (MGM), which recently flagged extreme temperature spikes for Ankara on 2 July 2026[9]. The upcoming 2026 Ankara NATO summit, scheduled for 7–8 July, may also influence local weather reporting or infrastructure activity near the airport, though its direct impact on temperature remains uncertain[6]. With settlement tied to Wunderground’s verified daily maximum, any discrepancy between forecasted extremes and recorded data will be critical, especially as July is Turkey’s driest month with average daytime temperatures exceeding 30°C in most regions[3]. On-chain mechanics using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens mean liquidity shifts rapidly as new data points emerge, making timely access to MGM updates essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.