Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by the primary data source rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful positions on USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon.

August temperatures in Beijing historically cluster between 25–32°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 35–37°C during heat waves. The city experiences its warmest period in July and early August, though mid-August typically shows slight cooling as monsoon patterns shift. Examining Weather Underground's historical records for Beijing Capital International Airport reveals that temperatures above 36°C on 16 August occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 24°C are exceptionally rare for this date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a low-conviction market given the two-year settlement window.

Chinese meteorological agencies publish 10-day forecasts in early August, with updates typically released by the China Meteorological Administration around 7–10 August. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through 2025–2026 could materially influence summer heat patterns across northern China. Traders should monitor official CMA advisories and any heat-wave warnings issued in late July or early August 2026, as these would provide concrete signals for adjusting positions before the settlement window closes on 16 August at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.