Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as an outlier; Beijing’s hottest day on 5 July 2010 reached 42.1°C, while average July highs sit around 31°C (88°F), rarely dropping below 26°C [2][6]. The market currently prices 32°C at 31% and 33°C at 26%, suggesting traders expect a warm day despite the zero probability assigned to the lowest range [1].

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecast releases and any regional heatwave advisories, as these directly influence on-chain conditional token pricing in USDC on Polygon. A forecast showing 33°C or 34°C would rapidly deflate the YES price, while humidity levels in July can push temperatures higher than dry readings suggest [3][4]. Recent records confirm China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with averages hitting 23.21°C, indicating a trend toward extreme summer heat that could impact this settlement [5]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 5 July 2026, with Wunderground serving as the definitive resolution source for the day’s peak temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.