Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's settlement. The contract currently trades at 0% implied probability across Polygon's conditional token infrastructure, suggesting traders assess an extremely low likelihood of the temperature falling within the specified range. Resolution depends on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when station equipment records micro-variations throughout the day.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent baseline for calibration. Historical data from the past decade shows mid-August temperatures at Shuangliu typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional excursions toward 37–38°C during heat waves. The 0% probability currently priced suggests the market's range sits either well above or below these seasonal norms. Comparable August days at the airport rarely breach 39°C; the city's last recorded extreme of 40.2°C occurred in August 2006. Understanding what temperature threshold this contract actually covers—information not specified in the market description provided—proves essential before assessing whether current pricing reflects genuine scarcity or simply reflects a range positioned outside typical seasonal variation.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature bands. Any unusual atmospheric patterns affecting central Sichuan Province—such as tropical moisture influx or blocking high-pressure systems—would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 August, meaning final USDC settlement on Polygon occurs after the day's peak temperature has been recorded and verified on Weather Underground's platform.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.