Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature outcomes at 0% YES across the board, reflecting either incomplete market formation or a technical settlement specification that requires clarification before meaningful trading emerges. Resolution depends on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual readings occasionally diverge.

Chongqing's August climate presents a narrow historical band. The city experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with daily highs typically clustering between 32–36°C based on thirty-year averages from the China Meteorological Administration. Extreme readings above 40°C occur roughly once per decade during exceptional heatwaves; the city recorded 40.5°C in August 2006 and 40.3°C in August 2013. This distribution suggests most outcomes will concentrate in the 33–37°C range, though La Niña or El Niño conditions active in 2026 could shift seasonal patterns. The zero probability across all ranges indicates traders have not yet engaged with the specific temperature brackets offered.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks. Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies and monsoon positioning in early August will signal whether Chongqing faces typical summer conditions or anomalous heat. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 August, requiring confirmation from Weather Underground before conditional tokens resolve on Polygon.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.