Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current Polymarket price showing a 0% probability for the YES condition (31°C or higher). This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, reflects the crowd’s immediate assessment that the threshold is unlikely to be met, despite the date falling in Guangzhou’s hottest month.

Historical climatology frames this low probability: July is consistently the hottest month in Guangzhou, with average daily highs ranging between 33°C and 35°C, and peak temperatures occasionally reaching 39°C. China recently recorded its hottest month in recent history, with national averages eclipsing previous records, suggesting that extreme heat events are becoming more frequent. However, the current market pricing implies a specific expectation for this single day, possibly due to anticipated cloud cover or short-term weather anomalies.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source. Recent announcements about regional heatwaves or monsoon patterns could shift probabilities, as seen in 2024 when China experienced record-breaking temperatures. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026, so any late-morning temperature spikes will be critical. Watch for scheduled weather bulletins and satellite imagery that may indicate sudden shifts in atmospheric conditions.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.