Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a 34°C peak sitting at 0% for the YES side. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the zero pricing reflects a market consensus that the day’s peak will likely fall outside the 34°C band, either higher or lower.

Historically, July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, averaging 28.3°C, but daily highs frequently reach 39°C, as seen on 25 July 2024 when the city hit 39°C[8]. The record high for the city is 39.1°C[5], and recent data shows July 3, 2026, peaked at exactly 34°C with a 27.5% probability of that exact band[1]. This suggests the 0% pricing for 6 July may be an overreaction, given the volatility of early July peaks in this subtropical zone.

Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre of China’s 72-hour forecast for the Pearl River Delta, which updates daily and may signal an incoming heat dome or monsoon surge. A recent Xinhua report noted Guangzhou has experienced its longest summer since 1961, with 235 summer days recorded as of last week[4][6], indicating sustained thermal pressure that could push 6 July’s peak above 34°C. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, so real-time Wunderground data from the Baiyun station will be the definitive resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.