Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the crowd currently assigning zero per cent probability to the temperature reaching the upper threshold. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% YES, reflecting a sharp consensus that the heat will not breach the defined range, despite the on-chain mechanics allowing USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens.

Historical data frames this probability as unusually cautious: July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs typically around 33°C (91°F), rarely falling below 30°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F)[1][2]. The average high for July 2026 is forecast at 36°C, and recent years show temperatures reaching 36.3°C during continuous sunny spells[2][5]. Given that July 9 falls in the peak of summer, a zero per cent YES probability contradicts the typical thermal behaviour of the region, suggesting either a mispricing or an expectation of unusual cloud cover.

Traders should monitor the monsoon schedule and any official heatwave announcements from Guangdong meteorological services, as sudden rain could suppress temperatures below the threshold. Recent reports note “insane heat” in Guangzhou with outdoor temperatures over 30°C, even indoors, indicating persistent high-pressure conditions[7]. Additionally, the monsoon uncertainty cited in similar markets may drive sharp repricing if weather models shift toward clearer skies[8]. Watch Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Baiyun station, as the settlement depends exclusively on its recorded peak for the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.