Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong faces its peak summer heat today, with the city’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 yet to be officially recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory. The prediction market currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd expects the day’s maximum to fall outside the defined resolution range, despite July being historically the hottest month in the city’s records.

Historical data shows July 2025 was the city’s hottest month on record, breaking 11 temperature benchmarks with an average of 30.3°C, while July 2022 previously held the record since 1884 with daily maxima often exceeding 35°C[1][2]. The Observatory’s long-term ranking indicates July’s highest monthly maximum temperature reached 35.7°C in earlier decades, suggesting that any daily peak below this threshold would align with the current 0% probability if the market’s range sits above typical extremes[3].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s upcoming “Daily Extract” publication, which finalises the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for settlement, as data is only resolved once published[1]. No immediate weather announcements are scheduled, but the forecast for July 2026 anticipates daily highs between 30°C and 34°C (86°–94°F), with overnight lows near 27°C–28°C, providing a baseline for expected outcomes[4]. The market remains conditional on this official dataset release, with no resolution possible until the extract is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.