Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory is expected to record a July 5, 2026, daily maximum temperature that falls within the highest range on its scale, a real-world event that currently carries a 0% YES probability on Polymarket. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, is priced today to reflect extreme scepticism that the temperature will hit the top bracket, despite seasonal forecasts indicating normal to above-normal heat for July–September 2026[1]. Historical data shows 2026 may be one of Hong Kong’s hottest years, with the Observatory already recording a 36.1°C maximum in May that broke the 1963 record[5][6]. July averages typically reach 87°F to 95°F (30.6°C to 35°C), and the Observatory noted ten days above 35°C in a recent heatwave, suggesting the top range is plausible even if the market currently dismisses it[2][9].

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for the 5 July entry, as the market cannot resolve until this official data is published in the relevant climate report[1]. The key catalyst is the release of the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” figure, which will be measured to one decimal place in Celsius[1]. Recent announcements confirm a high chance of 2026 reaching the warmest top 10 on record, with above-normal summer temperatures expected[8]. Watch for updates on the ENSO status and climate model forecasts, which the Observatory cites as drivers for the above-normal temperature trend[1]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z, so timely access to the finalised extract is critical for on-chain resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.