Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is simply the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Today, Polymarket prices this contract with a 0% chance for the "YES" outcome, yet traders overwhelmingly see 30–32°C as the most probable range for Hong Kong’s daily maximum, reflecting official guidance and typical early-July climatology[1]. Historical data confirms that July and August are Hong Kong’s hottest months, with average highs around 32°C and frequent daily maxima reaching 31°C to 33°C, making a sub-30°C peak statistically unlikely[3][9]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 further expects temperatures to be normal to above-normal, reinforcing the market’s confidence in higher values[4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" is finalized and available[1]. Recent weather outlooks indicate temperatures between 25°C and 29°C for the period leading to 9 July, with a medium-high probability of significant rain on 6 July, which could temporarily suppress peak temperatures[8][10]. However, monsoon-influenced subtropical conditions typically produce hot, humid summers with daily highs averaging 33°C from late May to mid-September, suggesting rain may not prevent a 31°C+ peak[5]. On-chain mechanics remain straightforward: USDC settles positions on Polygon via conditional tokens, with volume already at $79,148 as traders bet on the 30–32°C range[1]. The resolution source measures temperature to one decimal, so even a 30.9°C reading would fall outside the 31°C threshold if the market’s "YES" condition requires 31°C or higher.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.