Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory is set to record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any specific outcome. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the crowd-implied probability reflects extreme uncertainty rather than a definitive forecast. The resolution hinges on the finalised "Daily Extract" data, which will be published only after the settlement window closes on 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z.

Historical July data frames this 0% probability as a statistical anomaly rather than a realistic expectation, given that Hong Kong routinely experiences highs between 30°C and 35°C in mid-summer. Long-term averages suggest daytime maximums of 31°C, while recent records show temperatures soaring past 34.6°C earlier this year, indicating that a 0% probability contradicts the region’s typical thermal behaviour[7][8]. The crowd’s current stance likely stems from the market’s inability to resolve until data is finalized, creating a temporary pricing distortion rather than a genuine belief in impossible weather.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s upcoming tropical cyclone predictions and temperature outlook announcements, as these directly influence the likelihood of extreme heat events. The Observatory has already flagged 2026 as potentially one of Hong Kong’s hottest years on record, a catalyst that could shift probabilities if confirmed by subsequent daily reports[6]. Dependencies include the timely publication of the "Daily Extract" and the absence of cooling weather systems, with any delay in data finalisation extending the market’s unresolved state.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.