Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston is set to face peak summer heat on 10 July 2026, with the William P. Hobby Airport station expected to record a daily high that determines the outcome of this weather contract. On Polymarket, the contract currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite July being historically the hottest month for the city.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as an anomaly rather than a reflection of typical conditions. July in Houston usually sees daily highs climbing from 92°F to 95°F, rarely dropping below 87°F or exceeding 100°F[2]. The city recently endured its second-warmest July on record, averaging 87.8°F, while 2025 marked the second-warmest year overall with more 90-plus-degree days than ever before[1][9]. Extreme heat is common; on 10 July 2022, the temperature hit 104°F, and the absolute record for Houston reached 105°F in 2022[5][6].

Traders should monitor the live radar and storm tracking for scattered storms expected on the settlement date, as precipitation could temporarily suppress temperatures[8]. The resolution depends entirely on the final daily value published by Wunderground for the Hobby Airport station, which locks once the first observation for 11 July is recorded[3]. With the city hitting 100°F+ for 22 days this summer, the fourth-highest count on record, the baseline for extreme heat remains firmly established[10]. Any deviation from these norms would require a significant, unforecasted cooling event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.