Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by NOAA. Historical long-term averages for Istanbul in July show daytime maximums typically reaching 27°C with low humidity, while the broader Turkish climate in July is hot and dry, often exceeding 30°C in most regions except the Black Sea coast [1][2]. Given that July is the driest month in Turkey with minimal rainfall, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high-temperature range suggests traders view the forecast as too uncertain or the threshold as implausibly high relative to the 27°C baseline [2][4].

Traders should monitor the NOAA daily update schedule for the LTFM site, as the market resolves only once the first data point for 9 July is published [1]. Recent weather patterns in Istanbul for early July 2026 show highs ranging from 80°F to 91°F (approximately 27°C to 33°C), indicating that extreme heat is possible but not guaranteed [5]. A key catalyst is the official NOAA release time, which dictates settlement; any delay in data publication could impact the on-chain conditional token resolution on Polygon, where USDC is used for payouts [7]. Traders must also watch for any sudden shifts in regional weather forecasts, as even a single day of intense heat could push temperatures above the 29°C threshold seen in similar markets [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.