Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES across the range options, reflecting either incomplete market formation or settlement mechanics that require clarification on the specific temperature brackets available for trading.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs clustering between 32–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C even during the hottest periods. The city's equatorial location and monsoon patterns create stable thermal conditions; August falls within the Southwest Monsoon season, which typically moderates afternoon temperatures through cloud cover and occasional rainfall. This historical stability suggests the crowd's current 0% pricing may reflect uncertainty about the exact range thresholds rather than genuine doubt about temperature occurrence.

Traders should monitor Malaysia's Meteorological Department forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with confidence intervals. Any significant deviation from seasonal norms—such as an extended dry spell or unusual high-pressure system—would shift probabilities materially. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary introduces a technical dependency; traders should verify the specific station's historical reporting consistency and any potential data gaps that could affect settlement timing near the 12:00 UTC window on 16 August.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.