Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices this contract with the 34°C range as the frontrunner at 100% probability, while the "26°C or below" outcome sits at 0% [1]. This stark pricing reflects the market’s confidence that Manila will not experience a cool day in early July, despite the settlement window closing on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Historically, July in Manila falls within the wet season, which spans June to October and brings frequent showers and high humidity [2]. The average temperature during this period ranges from 26°C to 31°C, whereas the dry season (November to May) sees hotter averages of 28°C to 32°C, with March and April being the hottest months [2]. However, recent data shows that July can still feature warm days; for instance, the warmest day in July 2026 is projected to be 30°C on 2 July [4], and Port Area in Manila recorded a maximum of 36.0°C on the first day of July 2026 [8]. These comparable cases suggest that while July is typically wet, temperatures can still reach the upper 30s, framing the current 100% probability for 34°C as plausible.

Traders should monitor daily weather announcements from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the highest temperature for all times on 1 July [1]. Key catalysts include the timing of rain showers and wind patterns, as spontaneous rain can occur even during drier periods [3]. Additionally, the north wind forecast for 1 July 2026, with gusts up to 35 mph, may influence temperature readings [6]. While no specific news source is cited for these forecasts, the on-chain mechanics of Polymarket—using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens—ensure transparent, real-time odds updates as new data emerges [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.