Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market currently pricing the YES option at 0%, implying the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range. This real-world event hinges on whether LaGuardia hits a heat threshold that has been historically rare for early July, despite recent trends showing rising summer temperatures in the region.

Historically, early July at LaGuardia has seen highs averaging 80–85°F, with record highs of 97°F and 100°F occurring on 21 July 2019 and 29 July 2025 respectively[7]. The most recent comparable heat spike occurred this week, when a record-breaking heat wave pushed the heat index to 112°F across New York City, with humidity amplifying “feels like” temperatures significantly[2]. Yet, such extremes have not yet been observed on 1 July, making the current 0% probability a reflection of both historical norms and the absence of confirmed forecasts for that specific date.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which will confirm whether the day’s high reaches the threshold in question[1]. Additionally, the upcoming forecast from AccuWeather, which projects daily highs between 81°F and 99°F for July 2026 at LaGuardia, offers a critical dependency[3]. A sudden shift in weather patterns—such as the dangerous heat event reported in New York and New Jersey this week—could alter expectations, but no official announcement has yet confirmed a 1 July spike[5]. On-chain, the market remains settled on USDC via Polygon, with conditional tokens reflecting the current consensus until the settlement window closes on 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.