Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" side sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, the contract is priced such that the frontrunner is the 98–99°F range at 27%, followed closely by 100–101°F at 22%, reflecting a market that anticipates a hot but not record-breaking day. Traders on Polygon are using USDC to back these conditional tokens, betting on whether the temperature will breach the triple-digit threshold or remain within the high-nineties bracket.

Historically, LaGuardia Airport has seen July 2 highs reach 101°F in 1966, while Newark Airport hit 103°F in 1901, establishing a precedent for extreme heat in the region[8]. However, revised models for July 2026 forecast daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with an average high of 87°F, suggesting that while temperatures will be warm, they may not reach the triple digits seen in past record years[3][5]. This historical context frames the current 27% probability for the 98–99°F range as a cautious bet against the more extreme outcomes.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service updates for LGA, which currently report a maximum temperature of 93°F for the day, and watch for any sudden shifts in weather patterns that could push temperatures higher[4]. Recent news from Yahoo highlights the possibility of dangerous, record-breaking heat in New York and New Jersey, which could serve as a catalyst for a spike in temperatures beyond the forecasted range[8]. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-02 at 12:00:00Z, so real-time data from Wunderground will be critical for resolving the market accurately.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.