Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in Queens recorded a peak temperature of 104°F, surpassing its 1966 daily high of 101°F and marking the hottest day in New York City for that period [3]. This real-world outcome directly contradicts the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome in the prediction market, which appears to misprice the contract given the on-chain mechanics using USDC on the Polygon network and conditional tokens [1]. The market frontrunner is actually "100–101°F" at 97%, indicating that traders are betting heavily on temperatures in that range, yet the actual settlement will reflect the 104°F reading [1].

Historical precedents frame how to interpret this discrepancy: LaGuardia has previously hit 104°F, and nearby JFK Airport also reached 100°F on 2 July 2026, tying its record high for the date [3][6]. The climate normals for LaGuardia show a maximum record of 100°F from 1949, but recent heat waves have consistently exceeded this benchmark, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F on record [5][4]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% probability is an outlier, as the data supports a high likelihood of temperatures exceeding 100°F.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and Wunderground settlement data, which will confirm the official highest temperature for the day [5]. Recent heat wave updates from the New York Times confirm that LaGuardia’s 104°F reading is the definitive settlement figure, overriding any market mispricing [3]. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-03T12:00:00Z, and the resolution source is explicitly the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day at LaGuardia [1]. No further announcements are needed, as the data is already settled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.