Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% for the YES position. On Polymarket, this contract is priced using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s near-zero confidence that the temperature will fall into the specified range. The settlement window closes on 4 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, and the resolution source is Wunderground’s official daily high for LaGuardia.

Historically, LaGuardia has seen extreme July heat, including a record 107°F on 3 July 1966 and a recent 104°F reading that broke the prior 101°F record, as reported by Fox Weather. Last week, the airport recorded its warmest midnight temperature ever at 94°F, suggesting that heat can persist through the night and influence daytime highs. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as potentially premature, given the volatility of summer temperatures in New York.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia and any forecast adjustments from AccuWeather, which projects July highs between 81°F and 99°F for 2026. A key catalyst is the upcoming holiday weather schedule, as heatwaves often intensify around Independence Day. Recent reports from Fox Weather highlight that NYC has already surpassed Phoenix in temperature, indicating a strong heat trend that could push readings higher than expected.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.