Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 8 July 2026 will settle this market, with the crowd currently assigning a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome for any specific range. This implies the market expects the peak to fall outside the defined bands, likely clustering around the 78–81°F modal bracket cited by NWS forecasts for post-frontal onshore flow[4]. Historical parallels from the recent July 7–8 heatwave show dangerously high heat indices and soaring temperatures across the Northeast, with LaGuardia hitting 102°F on the preceding Thursday and a record 94°F at midnight[3][5]. Such extreme warmth suggests the resolution will align with the 80–81°F lead seen in thin-volume, deep-liquidity markets, where 80–81°F currently holds 33.5% of the share[6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service point forecasts for KNYC, which project a high near 80°F under moderating onshore conditions, and watch for any sudden shifts in the post-frontal flow that could push temperatures higher or lower[4]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s daily high data for KLGA, making real-time updates from the NWS and AccuWeather critical as they refine overnight lows near 66°F and daily highs ranging 81–90°F[2][8]. Recent reports confirm the heatwave is tightening its grip, with Newark reaching 103°F and Bridgeport hitting 97°F, indicating the potential for record-breaking peaks that could invalidate the current 0% probability if the market misjudges the upper bound[3][10]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens will execute the payout once the 2026-07-08T12:00:00Z window closes, locking in the final temperature range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.