Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 July 2026, a date that sits just days after a historic heatwave shattered East Coast records. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting the crowd’s belief that the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold set for the market. This pricing is driven by on-chain mechanics using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens are traded to express views on the temperature range, with settlement finalising at 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026.

Historical precedents frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. LaGuardia reached 104°F on 3 July 2026, breaking the 1966 record of 101°F by 3 degrees, while Central Park tied its 1966 peak at 100°F [1]. The July 2026 heatwave simultaneously broke records across a 500-mile corridor, with temperatures unprecedented for the region and linked to 29 fatalities in New Jersey [1]. Despite this intensity, the 107°F record from 3 July 1966 remains the highest ever at LaGuardia [9], suggesting that while extreme heat is likely, exceeding the market’s threshold may still be improbable.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for LaGuardia and Wunderground’s daily high logs, as these are the official resolution sources [3]. The heatwave’s lingering effects, including record midnight temperatures of 94°F at LaGuardia on 4 July, indicate sustained thermal stress [2]. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on Wunderground’s data means any gaps in reporting could delay settlement. Recent coverage by FOX Weather confirms the heat’s persistence into the night, reinforcing the need to watch real-time temperature curves rather than relying on forecasts [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.