Highest temperature in Paris on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 5 July 2026, with current ensemble forecasts suggesting a modal peak between 29°C and 32°C. Historical data from recent European heatwaves shows Paris frequently hitting highs in the low-to-mid 30s during early July, with record-breaking events pushing temperatures toward 40°C or higher under strong El Niño conditions. For instance, France recorded its highest-ever national temperature of 46°C in June 2026, while Paris itself reached 42.6°C in the same period, indicating that extreme heat is not unprecedented in this season.

Traders should closely monitor the next Météo-France and ECMWF forecast updates, as these models drive the conditional token pricing on Polymarket’s USDC/Polygon infrastructure. A recent heatwave alert issued by Meteo France for 54 departments signals that high temperatures will persist, with daytime highs potentially reaching 40°C in southern regions and 35–38°C in Paris. The market’s current 0% YES probability for any specific bucket reflects the multi-outcome structure where NO wins if the temperature falls outside the chosen range, making it the mathematical favourite when probability mass is spread across ten alternative buckets. With only two days to resolution, the contract is highly sensitive to forecast volatility and any sudden shifts in the ensemble spread.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.