Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport faces a July 11, 2026, where the highest temperature is expected to land within a standard summer range, yet the Polymarket contract currently prices a YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range defined for this market. On-chain, this conditional token sits on Polygon, trading in USDC, with settlement locked until 12:00 UTC on the resolution date. The zero probability suggests traders are either confident the peak heat will miss the bracket entirely or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to reflect a realistic spread.

Historical data for Shanghai in July shows daily highs typically climbing from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C), with the month being the hottest of the year and average peaks reaching 87°F [1][2]. Summer highs regularly exceed 30°C, occasionally hitting 35°C during sunny spells [6]. Given that the current 0% price implies the temperature will not match the market’s range, one must consider if the bracket is set unusually low or high compared to these established norms, as a typical July 11 would likely see temperatures well above 25°C.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground history page for the ZSPD station once the day concludes, as this is the definitive resolution source [1]. While current short-term forecasts for the area indicate partly cloudy conditions with highs near 84°F to 86°F and a chance of thunderstorms [5][10], the specific catalyst is the official daily maximum recorded at 12:00 UTC. Any deviation from the expected 29–31°C range due to unexpected rain or cloud cover could validate the current pricing, but the lack of liquidity means the 0% figure may simply reflect an absence of opposing bets rather than a consensus on the weather outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.