Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this prediction contract. Today, Polymarket prices the "YES" option for the highest temperature falling within a specific range at 0%, implying the crowd believes the event is virtually impossible. This pricing reflects on-chain mechanics where USDC funds are locked on the Polygon network, and conditional tokens are traded based solely on the resolution data from Wunderground, not on speculative sentiment.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[2][4]. The National Weather Service recorded 81°F (27.2°C) at 10:00 am on a recent 9 July, with light showers and high clouds moderating the heat[1]. Given that temperatures regularly exceed 30°C in summer, a 0% probability for a specific range suggests the market anticipates the peak will fall outside that bracket entirely, likely due to the extreme variability of mid-summer heatwaves or the specific range being too narrow to capture typical highs[4].

Traders should monitor the 10-day forecast from AccuWeather, which currently predicts 90°F (32.2°C) for 9 July with high clouds and breezy conditions, a key catalyst that could suppress peak temperatures[3]. The settlement depends entirely on the daily maximum reported by Wunderground for all times on that day, making the timing of the heat peak critical[5]. Any sudden announcement of a typhoon or prolonged rain system, which are common in Shanghai’s July climate, would act as a decisive dependency, potentially shifting the peak temperature significantly below the range implied by the current 0% pricing[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.