Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. Polymarket prices this contract today heavily favouring 32°C at 43% and 31°C at 38%, reflecting climatological norms during the ongoing Southwest Monsoon season[1]. Historical data confirms that daily high temperatures in Singapore during July typically hover around 88°F (31.1°C), rarely falling below 85°F or exceeding 91°F (32.8°C)[2]. Recent records show the highest temperature in the preceding fortnight reached 91.1°F on 27 June 2026, aligning with the market’s expectation of a 32°C peak rather than an extreme outlier[4].

Traders should monitor the Southwest Monsoon intensity and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall schedules, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature deviations. The Singapore National Environment Agency reported that June 2025 was the hottest ever recorded, with heat stress readings reaching 35.0°C, suggesting a trend of rising thermal extremes that could influence July 2026 conditions[7]. While global records show July 21 as the hottest day ever recorded, local dependencies such as the gear icon temperature setting on Wunderground and the specific Changi Airport station data remain critical for accurate resolution[9]. USDC liquidity on the Polygon network and conditional token mechanics will drive price discovery as these weather dependencies evolve.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.