Highest temperature in Singapore on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 8 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily maximum for that station. Traders on Polymarket are currently pricing the “32°C” outcome at 50% probability, while “31°C” sits at 37%, and the “31°C or below” bucket implied by the crowd is at 0% YES—suggesting the market expects temperatures to exceed 31°C.

Historically, July in Singapore sees daily highs averaging 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 85°F (29.4°C) or exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), with Changi Airport typically tracking close to these norms. Recent data from July 2025 shows a peak of 34.2°C at Pulau Ubin, and July 2026 forecasts maintain similar ranges, reinforcing that 32°C is a plausible and frequent high for this period. The southwest monsoon transition often brings warm, dry spells that push temperatures above 31°C on most days.

Traders should monitor NEA’s weekly weather advisories for updates on wet weather and warm day trends, as reduced cloud cover and thunderstorm delays can elevate daytime highs. A recent NEA report for late July 2025 noted fewer wet days and more warm conditions, a pattern that may persist. Additionally, global heatwave reports—such as South Korea’s record 37.8°C on 8 July 2026—could signal broader atmospheric warmth affecting Southeast Asia. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect these shifts as traders adjust positions based on real-time forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.