Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as an outlier; July in Tokyo typically averages 28.7°C with humidity at 77.6%, and recent forecasts for July 2026 predict daily highs between 25.6°C and 32.8°C (76°F to 91°F) [4][6]. Japan’s record high of 41.2°C in Tamba City on 30 July 2025 underscores the region’s capacity for extreme heat, yet the market’s pricing suggests the specific 26°C threshold is deemed improbable for this date [8].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground resolution source for the first data point published on 4 July, as the contract resolves only once this initial reading is available [1]. Key catalysts include the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and any sudden shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system, which drives summer temperatures in the Kanto region. While no specific announcement is scheduled for 4 July, the crowded parking hours at Haneda (05:30–20:00) may correlate with increased local heat retention from airport infrastructure [2]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket utilise USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens track the probability of the temperature landing in the specified range, allowing users to hedge or speculate based on real-time weather updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.