Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 5 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with current crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% for the "YES" option. Polymarket prices this contract today on the Polygon network using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the market’s near-total dismissal of the event occurring under the specified temperature range. On-chain mechanics ensure that settlement occurs only once Wunderground publishes the first verified data point for the date, locking in the resolution source before any further trading can alter the final outcome.

Historical July weather at Haneda shows daily highs typically ranging from 24°C to 36°C, with recent years recording peaks near 36°C amid humidity levels of 80% or higher[5]. The rainy season often extends into July, bringing frequent showers and moderate breezes that can suppress extreme heat, though sudden thunderstorm clusters have previously triggered temperature spikes[4]. Current forecasts for July 2026 indicate highs between 24°C and 33°C, with overnight lows between 20°C and 26°C[3], suggesting that the 0% probability aligns with typical seasonal patterns rather than an outlier anomaly.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or thunderstorm activity that could elevate temperatures unexpectedly[4]. Recent reports from the Met Office note maximum feels-like temperatures of 28°C with gusts up to 16mph, which may influence how heat is retained or dispersed during the day[7]. Any official announcements regarding extreme heat warnings or changes in local atmospheric conditions could act as catalysts, though no such alerts have been issued as of early morning on 5 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.