Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the crowd’s conviction that the temperature will not fall within the specific range being traded. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, treats the event as statistically improbable despite the region’s summer heat.

Historical data frames this low probability against recent extremes. In July 2025, Japan recorded its highest-ever temperature of 41.2°C in Tamba City, roughly 560 km southwest of Tokyo, following the hottest June on record[2][8]. However, Haneda’s July 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 79°F and 89°F (26°C–32°C), well below that record[7]. The 0% price likely stems from the market’s expectation that Haneda will not reach the upper threshold of the traded range, even as regional heatwaves intensify.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and the Wunderground resolution feed for real-time updates. Recent reports confirm that summer 2026 has already triggered new highs at 39 observation points, with temperatures exceeding 35°C at 271 sites across Japan[6]. The market resolves only once the first data point for 6 July is published on Wunderground, making the timing of that release a critical dependency for settlement[1]. No moralising is needed; the facts dictate the current pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.