Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport in New Zealand on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 0% probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood of any significant heat during New Zealand’s midwinter. This zero valuation aligns with historical patterns: Wellington’s July temperatures typically hover near 10–15°C, with all-time summer maxima around 30°C occurring only in summer months. NIWA data confirms that even during the 2024 heatwave, Wellington (Kelburn) reached 30.3°C on a summer day, not in July[2]. No recorded July maximum in Wellington exceeds 20°C, making a high-temperature event in winter virtually impossible.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts from NIWA and global climate models for any anomalous southerly shifts or record-breaking cold snaps, though these would further depress temperature expectations. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s daily maximum for Wellington Intl Airport, so data gaps or sensor errors could introduce uncertainty, but such issues are rare. Recent NOAA reports highlight July 2024 as the warmest globally, yet this trend does not extend to New Zealand’s winter climate[1]. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, the market will resolve based on a single day’s data, leaving no room for recovery if the initial reading is low. USDC trades on Polygon via conditional tokens, ensuring transparent, on-chain execution without intermediary delay.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.