Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington in July is New Zealand’s coldest month, with average highs around 13°C and typical maximums rarely exceeding 15°C. On 9 July 2024, the city recorded 35.6°C—the highest temperature ever in Wellington—making that date a notable outlier in the climate record[5]. For the current prediction market on 9 July 2026, the crowd-implied probability of a specific temperature range is 0% YES, suggesting traders see little chance of a repeat of such extreme warmth[3]. Historical data shows July 9 normally sees highs near 11–12°C, with MetService recently revising the forecast to 12°C, though actual peaks often moderate slightly to 11°C[3].

Traders should monitor MetService’s daily weather bulletins and any sudden shifts in wind patterns, as Wellington’s coastal location makes it highly sensitive to southerly changes that can suppress temperatures quickly. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, so any data gaps or sensor anomalies could affect resolution[3]. While no major announcements are scheduled, seasonal climate models from NIWA may offer early signals on whether 2026 will be warmer than average. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather suggest July 2026 highs could range 8–10°C, well below the 35.6°C anomaly[4]. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with pricing reflecting the low likelihood of extreme heat given current meteorological trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.