Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by whichever temperature range contains that single highest reading in degrees Celsius. The current 0% implied probability reflects the market's pricing mechanism on Polygon, where conditional tokens denominated in USDC have assigned negligible value to any outcome, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery across the full distribution.

Historical August temperatures in Shanghai provide the empirical baseline for calibrating expectations. The city's August average high sits around 32°C, with extremes ranging from 29°C in cooler years to 38°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat wave saw Shanghai record 40.6°C, whilst more recent Augusts have typically peaked between 33–36°C. Pudong Airport's measurement station, positioned in an urban setting with some heat island effects, tends to register slightly higher readings than suburban alternatives. The absence of any probability mass across the temperature ranges suggests traders may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data or testing market infrastructure rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about August weather patterns.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, typically released in early summer, which forecast whether the 2026 monsoon season will favour cooler or warmer conditions across eastern China. El Niño or La Niña patterns, confirmed by late 2025, would influence atmospheric circulation and thus August heat intensity. Real-time monitoring of July 2026 temperatures in Shanghai will provide the most direct signal for adjusting expectations about mid-August conditions, as consecutive heat waves often persist across the summer months.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.