Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat check today as the Incheon International Airport station records its peak temperature for 11 July 2026, a metric that will settle the USDC-denominated contract on Polygon. The crowd currently prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range defined in the market description, despite the region’s volatile summer history.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a potential mispricing rather than a certainty. Seoul recently experienced 37.8°C in early July, marking the hottest start to the month in 117 years and beating the 1953 record of 37.7°C[1][5]. While the all-time national record hit 41.0°C in Hongcheon, Seoul’s July highs typically range between 29°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 35°C but occasionally surging past 37°C during intense heatwaves[3][5]. The 2025 summer saw Anseong reach 40.6°C with Seoul hitting 37.7°C, suggesting that extreme outliers are plausible even if the current market dismisses them entirely[4].

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for tropical nights and persistent heat alerts, which often precede record-breaking days. The KMA has previously forecasted temperatures remaining above average through early August with no significant rainfall, a condition that drives extreme heat persistence[4]. Recent reports confirm South Korea is enduring its second-hottest July since 1973, with average temperatures reaching 27.1°C, reinforcing the risk of a spike on this specific date[6]. On-chain, conditional tokens will resolve based solely on the Wunderground history for the Incheon station, meaning local micro-climate deviations from the city centre could invalidate broad national heat narratives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.