Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 6 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this weather contract, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance for any "YES" resolution across all temperature ranges. On Polymarket, this conditional token is trading on the Polygon network using USDC, where the frontrunner outcome is 36°C at 36% probability, followed closely by 35°C at 33%, indicating the crowd expects a hot day despite the current zero-yes pricing for the binary event.

Historical data frames this expectation, as July is the hottest month at Taipei Songshan Airport with an average high of 92°F (33.3°C), while recent days in early July 2026 have consistently hit 36°C, including the 4 July market which resolved to 100% certainty for that temperature and the 5 July result where 36°C won decisively. These comparable cases suggest the current 0% YES probability is likely a mispricing, given the on-chain consensus heavily favours the 35–36°C range.

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s afternoon forecasts and ensemble models for any shifts in cloud cover or rain chance, as the 6 July forecast from AccuWeather already predicts occasional afternoon rain with a high of 95°F (35°C). The resolution source is Wunderground, so any real-time updates on humidity or wind speed from the CWA airport page could act as catalysts, especially if the rain forecast delays the peak temperature or lowers the daily maximum below the 35°C threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.